09 : Should India ban fossil fuels?

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What is your Opinion : Yes or No?

Why is it so? = Pick Pointers for your arguments

Yes	No
2023 was hottest year ever with global temperature 1.48 deg C above pre-industrial temperatures. We are almost at 1.5 deg C rise threshold we had kept for ourselves at Paris meet. Flood, storms and Heatwaves are wrecking havoc around the world.	G20 discussed all these issues but failed to reach a consensus. A final statement did not even mention coal which is a major contributor to global warming and key energy source for countries like India & China. At G20, here was failure to even agree on CoP goals including tripling of renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
A coalition of key EU economies including Germany &France has urged plans to reach Net Zero emissions emphasizing that humankind cannot delay action.	Net Zero does not need banning fossil fuels. India has pledged to reach Net Zero by 2070. Its estimated cost for energy transition is USD 4 trillion / year.
G7 nations have agreed on phase out of fossil fuels. China is also phasing out. At COP27 in Sharm El-Sheikh last year, India had proposed inclusion of clear language on phasing down all fossil fuels, not just coal, as agreed at the Glasgow meet. Though the proposal failed to make the final cut, it gained the support of at least 80 countries and the European Union. This tentative alliance between India, the EU, and small island states was viewed by some observers as a new approach that was ambitious while being rooted in equity.	Many countries at G20 also argued that any transition needs huge capital and new technology. Giving up on fossil fuels without affordable alternatives can condemn their huge populations to poverty. India’s more than 2/3rd of energy production still depends on coal. It’s a source of energy as well as livelihoods. Growing middle class is driving the energy demand but still per capita energy consumption is far less than that in developed world.
The Chinese approach to EVs was not driven by climate change. It was driven by an interest in ensuring that its people can have the kind of quality of life that was being enjoyed in Europe or America. So, oil fueled vehicles can be stopped. India can also stop using fossil fuel driven vehicles. Also, oil is limited and a shift away can help India solve it’s economic problems. India should use both carrots in form of subsidies, but also sticks in the form of not making people buy cheap fossil fuel cars. And India will have to use some of those policy tools to actually get this industry going.	Even China has not banned fossils though they are much ahead of India in terms of development parameters. India has already set some of the most aggressive renewable energy targets in the world. More rapid investment in solar, wind, bio-energy and so forth, quicker we can shift. Batteries are getting way cheaper, which is great for fighting climate change. But mining the stuff (cobalt) for them, in places like the Democratic Republic of Congo can be bad for people and the planet. We should think about environmental impacts of everything that we deploy, whether it’s a clean energy solution or not.
Hydrogen has existed and batteries have existed, but they have never been deployed at scale. A study by the Institute of Energy Economics and Financial Analysis recently found that most CCS projects haven’t worked well. Even the IPCC (or the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) is worried about leaks and how good CCS really is.	Issue is greenhouse gas emission and its resolution lies in mitigation & adaptation and not in ban. Carbon capture had existed for 50 years and was being deployed at scale, but not for climate purposes. This will solve the issue rather than going for renewables.
Climate crisis is more than just tech fixes, it’s also about politics, money, and making sure everyone benefits from the solutions. If the dots are connected, a ban is possible.	Recent study by a top Indian institute (which is the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy) warns that India’s ambitious goal of 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy by 2030, might actually widen the gap between richer States in the west and south (lots of sunshine for solar), and poorer states in the north and east (coal reserves, but not much sunshine). These poorer States might have to even buy their electricity from the richer ones to meet their climate goals.
MoRTH minister Gadkari himself said India can reduce its pollution by over 40 per cent by not using fossil fuels like petrol and diesel, while the country imports crude oil worth Rs 16 lakh crore every year. It poses a big economic challenge for us. It also causes pollution. Besides, we also import coal worth Rs 12 lakh crore. We need to reduce our new technologies and improvise those also. New technology should be need based, economically viable and the raw material for it should be available.	Take an example of Saudi Arabia: blessed with oil, but it’s also blessed with the sun. It’s not really tapping into the sun, it’s tapping into the oil right now. Our entire world runs on fossil fuels. The ban of fossil fuels would lead to the shutting down of many industries of transportation and manufacturing, and this would ultimately lead to economic disruptions, job losses and poverty.

Some Additional Data Points You should know for opinion building :

India has set itself the target of producing 500 gigawatts of power -- about 50% of country’s total energy requirement, through non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. The renewable energy installed capacity is at 172 GW in the country and India is at the fourth position in the world in terms of clean energy capacity. Our total power basket has 38 per cent share of solar energy.

ISA & Global Biofuel Alliance by India are major initiatives. Ethanol blending targets are also important.

43.75 per cent of India installed capacity is in non-fossil fuel sources. Here, renewable energy accounted for nearly 31% of India’s installed energy capacity, in which hydro accounted for 11% and nuclear energy 1.76%. India is just 7.25% away from its NDC (National Determined Contribution) target.

Carbon capture is a multiple step technology. The first [step] is to separate the gases that are produced from, say, a coal power plant or an industry like a steel plant where you get a mixture of gases. You’ll get carbon dioxide, nitrogen, some unburnt oxygen, and you separate carbon dioxide. Then you have to move it—that’s the second step. You have to take it, compress it, make it liquid, move it in a pipe or trucks sometimes. And then, the final step is where you put it underground and store it.

India is a fossil fuel dominated economy, with primary energy consumption of 880 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe). The electricity, industry, and transport industries account for more than 70 percent of the primary energy demand and 85 percent of the energy-related Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. India has committed to net-zero by 2070, with a target to reduce the emission intensity of its GDP and meet 50 percent of its power generation capacity based on non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

Challenge in India is that you still require a level of personal awareness in the public about the climate challenge that many of the problems that India faces right now—from water issues to air pollution issues—these are problems that can be solved if you tackle climate change. Or that many of the problems India faces through droughts or through lower productivity on agriculture or through heat waves, which are many and increasing, are because of climate change. There is a lack of connecting the dots in the Indian understanding of the issue on what is being caused by climate change and what could be solved if we take climate solutions on.

It is a big deal that in COP28, all countries agreed to transitioning away from fossil fuels. However, the outcome and the success of it will only be determined if countries actually follow through on the commitment that they’ve made. India's submission to the UN stocktake says that "developed countries should have already peaked their emissions and must be on their way to becoming net negative, with peaking to come later for developing countries".

UN Chief Guterres said that developing nations should reach net zero by 2050. Countries like China, Russia and Saudi Arabia aim to reach that target by 2060 while India targets 2070. His proposal was largely ignored by both developed and developing nations.

“If aliens did visit us, I’d be embarrassed to tell them we still dig fossil fuels from the ground as a source of energy,” Neil deGrasse Tyson, an award-winning American astrophysicist once said.

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Balanced Conclusion / Way Forward :

India is the most populous nation in the world and its progress in energy transition will be critical for the world. India has contributed much less than America or Europe or China. India is suffering even though it’s not [a historic contributor], it’s suffering in an unfair way.

India is still a developing country. The scale of energy requirements cannot be met with renewables alone. Fossil fuels will continue to play a major role in the short term and we expect them to slowly exit in the medium term as we gradually phase in renewable sources while also addressing the related issues,

Even CoP28 had two major pronouncements of the conference: the Loss and Damage Fund as well as the final resolution to “transition away” from fossil fuels. Thus, solution is transition not ban. Countries would also go into debt after the ban on fossil fuels, as it would completely stunt their economic growth. Instead of an immediate ban, people should replace fossil fuels gradually.